Report Date: 30 May 2016
Where are we in the Cycle?
Whatever cyclical momentum that may have been evident in the early
months of 2016 seems to have been lost making it difficult for companies
even in better performing parts of the sector to sustain gains. The
contrast between lithium exposed companies and those looking to develop
uranium properties illustrates the need for care in choosing.
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Market Directions
Market moves in the past week have continued to accord with the
principal themes outlined in recent PortfolioDirect
commentaries with the inadequacy of the gold price momentum being especially
evident.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Without a cyclical tailwind, it makes sense to take profits where they
occur on the assumption that large gains are not going to be usually
sustainable. Several stocks were deleted or received reduced weightings
(with several others added to partly compensate). Cash holdings remain high
in the absence of cyclical triggers. Phase III stocks have been especially
weak over the past four weeks.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
Alto Metals (AME:AU) has jettisoned some exciting uranium
exploration targets to join the rush to rehabilitate historical WA gold
workings as a short-cut to value. Alto starts with an extensive database of
assay results which hint at instances of very high grades among the
historical workings at Sandstone in the Murchison. Over 10 years, Troy
Resources extracted 508,000oz. of gold from 3.876 million tonnes of ore in a
very lightly explored region. More up to date exploration techniques will
be used to identify enough resources for processing at regionally convenient
plants. More extensive drilling will be targeting deeper mineralisation and
a larger resource for longer term mining plans. PortfolioDirect
has classified Alto Metals as a Phase I company and rated it ‘3’ on the five
point risk adjusted quality rating scale, with evident rating upside
potential.
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