30 April 2018
Where are we in the Cycle?
Global economic growth might have already peaked after a surge in the
latter part of 2017. The better productivity outcomes needed to spur a
further improvement in growth remain hard to foresee. Uncertainties over
trade restrictions are putting corporate investment decisions at risk at a
critical juncture in the cycle as supply constraints, monetary conditions
and exchange rates become less supportive.
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Market Directions
Commodity prices and related equities tended lower with all segments of
the sector experiencing losses although the largest stocks in the sector
remained well ahead for the month after benefitting from threats to metal
supplies from broadened sanctions against Russian business interests. In
the Australian context, the resource sector equity benchmark trailed the
industrial index.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
The portfolio performance has reflected the market moves with losses
across all three development categories in the past week. Overall portfolio
results lagged the benchmark index with relatively large losses among Phase
I companies. The macro portfolio remains tilted toward the smaller end of
the market where there is less correlation with broader equity market
conditions but where volatility is typically higher. A significant cash
position remains. No changes were made to the models in the past week.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk
attributes of proposed mineral developments. Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of
development. PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating
scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments
or companies.
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on
the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks.
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