Report Date: 27 June 2016
Where are we in the Cycle?
Even before the Brexit vote, mining industry prospects were appearing
bleaker as the US Federal Reserve flagged a reappraisal of its understanding
of macro conditions against a dearth of evidence that policies had been
effective in accelerating growth.
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Market Directions
Resource sector equity prices were little changed over the week despite
large variations in the prices within other sectors. Gold equity prices
showed little leverage to higher gold bullion prices.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Losses occurred across all corporate development stages with Phase II
companies again suffering the worst. There were no significant changes to
portfolio models. High cash positions have been retained in the macro model
designed to take account of sector cyclical positioning.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
After a median share price fall through the cycle of around 80%, hundreds of
early stage mining companies can show very strong bottom of the cycle
capital gains even without recovering a material part of their earlier
losses. At this stage of the cycle, seller exhaustion is a pre-requisite
for market re-pricing which may not be the result of a specific event or a
so-called ‘investment catalyst’. Remaining examples of exploration or
development endeavours still trapped within cyclical low price ranges
include companies such as Australian Vanadium (AVL), Bannerman Resources
(BMN), Crusader Resources (CAS), Deep Yellow (DYL), Heemskirk Consolidated
(HSK), Kasbah Resources (KAS), Mineral Deposits (MDL), MZI Resources (MZI),
Potash West (PWN) and Thundelarra (THX).
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