26 November 2018
Where are we in the Cycle?
None of the five PortfolioDirect cyclical guideposts are turned to
‘green’. The cyclical positioning has been reclassified as ‘downswing’ with
global growth decelerating and less supportive monetary policy settings.
Unusually prolonged supply side constraints which have been offsetting the
effect of weak demand growth are losing their impact as newly initiated
production starts to flow in some metal categories.
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Market Directions
Mining and oil and gas stocks finished the week lower as they were
caught up in broader market weakness led by declines in large US growth
oriented momentum stocks amid worries about declining global growth. US-Sino
trade tensions and fears that the US Federal Reserve will prove too
aggressive in pushing interest rates higher remain influential factors in
setting the market direction.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Phase II stocks made a small positive contribution after large losses
over the prior six weeks as weaker markets and failure to meet targets took
their toll. Of the three development categories, Phase I stocks have
contributed the smallest losses. The relatively large weighting in Phase I
companies, which now have less downside risk due to having been omitted from
the earlier cyclical rally, has been retained. No changes have been made to
the portfolio models.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk
attributes of proposed mineral developments. Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of
development. PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating
scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments
or companies.
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on
the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks.
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