26 February 2018
Where are we in the Cycle?
Cyclical progress continues to depend on a stronger growth profile than
is currently anticipated. US dollar weakness remains an ongoing possible
source of support as monetary stimulus is wound back but an improvement in
growth prospects depends on better productivity outcomes.
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Market Directions
Equity markets have stabilised but mining and oil and gas equity prices
have generally underperformed improved macro outcomes and the cyclical
positioning of commodity markets. Stronger sector equity prices are likely
to depend on a improved flows of funds based on a belief that cyclical
progress will occur over a prolonged number of years.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Portfolio returns were generally better than overall sector outcomes
during the past week although for the month to date the macro portfolio
outcome has lagged the benchmark due to worse than average performance among
the Phase II group of companies. Several weighting changes were made which
reduced the tactical portfolio cash allocation in favour of a heavier bias
to Phase I stocks. The portfolio retains a large cash holding reflecting the
PortfolioDirect assessment of the scope for further cyclical improvement.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk
attributes of proposed mineral developments. Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of
development. PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating
scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments
or companies.
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on
the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks.
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