25 February 2019
Where are we in the Cycle?
Of the five, PortfolioDirect cyclical guideposts two are ‘red’ and three
‘amber’. The cyclical positioning has been classified as ‘downswing’ with
global growth decelerating, a loss of output momentum in China, the largest
national user of metal, and less supportive monetary policy settings than
have prevailed for most of the post-2009 period.
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Market Directions
The post-Christmas recovery in stock prices has continued with lowered
measures of volatility indicating a drift toward complacency about the key
drivers of equity prices. Optimism about the resolution of Sino-US trade
frictions and confirmation from the US Federal Reserve of a shift in its
policy bias away from monetary tightening has helped. Despite widespread
belief that global economic growth is slowing, resources sector equity
prices have retained their upward bias with gains across all principal
development stages although the leverage among the smallest stocks in the
sector remains modes
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Phase I stocks produced the strongest gains in the past week to bring
this group into line with the other development segments for the month to
date. The Phase II companies, those most dependent on strong global growth
and supportive financial market conditions, lost ground. Prices of all
selected Phase III stocks have risen over the past four weeks. A relatively
large weighting in Phase I companies has been retained. No portfolio
changes have been recommended.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk
attributes of proposed mineral developments. Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of
development. PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating
scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments
or companies.
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on
the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks.
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