Where are we in the Cycle?
Of the five PortfolioDirect cyclical guideposts, one is ‘green' and four are flashing ‘amber’ .  Cyclical conditions have been disproportionately affected by the unprecedented surge in liquidity from central banks.  Looking ahead, commodity markets are at risk from an inevitably slowing monetary momentum, in the absence of other supporting factors.  Stronger anticipated growth for 2021, as a whole, conceals a tendency for weaker outcomes through the course of the year and for levels of global output to remain below 2019  outcomes. The cyclical positioning has been characterised as being near a peak and at risk of moving into a ‘downswing’ phase.             More...

Market Directions
A weakening US dollar and unprecedentedly expansionary monetary conditions have underpinned recent industrial metal price strength as well as a broader array of asset price gains, including for gold.  Strong speculative capital flows connected to retail investors are supporting sector prices and offsetting the negative effect on mining equities of physical market balances tilting into surplus due to a slowdown in demand.  Heavily hyped energy storage innovations remain too far in the future to affect current metal demand.  1990s style investment performance - when modest sector equity price gains occurred in the midst of sometimes highly disruptive macro conditions - remains the underlying theme.   More...

Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Phase I and Phase II stock returns turned negative, in contrast to the gians among the market leading Phase III companies with the early stage uranium stocks losing graound after strong recent performance. Improved market liquidity and a general willingness among retail investors to take speculative risks continue to favour the earliest stage companies. Phase I stocks also offer uncorrelated returns from discovery opportunities.  Gains among Phase II companies continue to struggle to match risk adjusted returns in other parts of the market.  Phase II companies are among the riskiest investment options, being the most indebted and heavily reliant on execution success.  Portfolio models are biased to the Phase I stock category. Cash positions were reduced recently to accommodate greater exposure to uranium related companies and a small number of Phase II companies which had lost ground against the sector.   More...

Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis 
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk attributes of proposed mineral developments.  Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of development.  PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments or companies.    
More...

The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks. More...