21 May 2018
Where are we in the Cycle?
Global economic growth might have already peaked during a surge in the
latter part of 2017. Beneficial effects will linger but uncertainties over
trade restrictions are now putting corporate investment decisions at risk at
a critical juncture in the cycle as supply constraints, monetary conditions
and exchange rates become less supportive.
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Market Directions
Commodity prices generally edged lower after concerns about global
growth re-emerged and the US dollar moved higher. Rising US interest rates
eroded bullion prices and related equities. The largest companies continued
to lead the investment returns while returns from exploration companies have
lost significant momentum. Widely divergent currency moves across many
countries with significant mining activities have the potential to disrupt
the business plans of resident companies.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Phase II companies which had shown the highest returns in the prior week
gave up much of the gain with losses extending across several prominent
companies in the process of developing new projects. Phase I companies did
best during the week to recapture some lost ground in recent weeks.. The
macro portfolio remains tilted toward the smaller end of the market where
there is less correlation with broader equity market conditions. A
significant cash position remains. No changes were made to the models in the
past week. More...
Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk
attributes of proposed mineral developments. Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of
development. PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating
scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments
or companies.
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on
the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks.
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