Where are we in the Cycle?
Of the five PortfolioDirect cyclical guideposts, one is ‘green’, three are flashing ‘amber’ and one has turned ‘red’, as the impact of the central bank liquidity surge and accompanying fiscal compensation for the effects of government lockdown mandates lessens. Upgraded growth forecasts for 2021 had been concealing a tendency for weakening underlying growth through the course of the year and into 2022 as sluggish pre-pandemic growth drivers resume their primary roles.  Supply side constraints in metal markets remain a positive influence on cyclical conditions. The cyclical positioning has been characterised as near a peak and at risk of moving into a ‘downswing’ phase.      More...

Market Directions
The speculative capital flows connected to retail investors and supporting sector equity prices is being threatened by the withdrawal of unprecedentedly supportive monetary conditions, surging inflation and the risk of a widening war in Europe.  While heavily hyped energy storage innovations are stoking interest and favourably impacting sector funding, they are yet to affect demand meaningfully.  Rising metal price risk premiums due to geopolitical fears stoking price volatility are not benefitting related equity prices.   Persistence of a 1990s-style investment performance - when modest sector equity price gains occurred in the midst of sometimes highly disruptive macro conditions - remains the underlying theme.          More...

Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Relatively large losses among Phase I companies, within a majority of losses across all development categories, emphasised the rising volatility in sector prices, with uranium related stocks making a significant contribution to the widening price fluctuations.  Although threatened by the loss of central bank support for speculative capital, Phase I companies continue to benefit from discovery opportunities uncorrelated with market conditions.  Although further along the development path, Phase II companies remain among the riskiest investment options due to their indebtedness, heavy reliance on execution success and need for strong global economic conditions to initiate sales, making their risk adjusted performance less attractive.  Performance within the Phase III category is more likely to be driven by institutional allocations responding to changing macro conditions.  Portfolio models remain biased to the Phase I stock category with cash positions reflecting the cyclical risks.      More...

Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis 
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk attributes of proposed mineral developments.  Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of development.  PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments or companies.    
More...

The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks. More...