Report Date: 21 March 2016
Where are we in the Cycle?
Through policy pronouncements in the past two weeks, the US and
European central banks have highlighted the absence of the growth momentum
which is a critical ingredient in a speedier cyclical recovery in metal
prices.
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Market Directions
The oil price connection with equity prices has persisted but this and
several other price relationships such as with volatility and between gold
and interest rates may have been taken to unsustainable extremes.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
The breadth of increase in sector stock prices has diminished with the
Phase III companies showing the strongest gains. Recommended cash positions
have been reduced slightly but remain high. Aguia Resources and MZI
resources which had both shown relatively weak recent returns have been
added to the recommended portfolio holdings.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
Uranium stocks are lagging their mining industry peers across the world. The
Global X uranium ETF price has remained in a downtrend for four years
despite the uranium market outlook being stronger than the outlook for other
raw material markets because of already confirmed longer term growth in
nuclear power generation capacity. Since the turn in oil prices on 11
February, the Global X uranium ETF has added 24%. Over the same time period,
the average return of Bannerman Resources, Toro Energy, Peninsula Energy and
Deep Yellow has been +0.5% while the ASX small resources share price index
has added 17%. PortfolioDirect reports have been produced
on Bannerman Resources, Peninsula Energy and Deep Yellow.
For company reports
& ratings...