20 November 2017
Where are we in the Cycle?
Being able to point to evidence of improved cyclical conditions, does
not address one vitally important question: what is the source of ongoing
momentum? With some of the key drivers of cyclical progress losing
their impact, the next leg of the cycle in commodity prices and related
equity values becomes harder to find.
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Market Directions
US tax policy is becoming a vital ingredient in the upward trajectory of
equity markets with interest rates and exchange rates also becoming
increasingly tied to the legislation moving through the Congress.
Short term market movements, including signs of a near term rise in risk
aversion, are suggesting a loss of momentum for the resources sector.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
The exploration end of the market is playing catch-up with the rest of
the sector as the market response to exploration results is becoming more
aggressive. The biggest gains in the past week have come from stocks at the
earlier stages in the development cycle. No changes were made to model
portfolio arrangements in the last week. Without more emphatic progress
through the cycle, a large cash position (i.e. dry powder for later in the
cycle) remains appropriate.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk
attributes of proposed mineral developments. Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of
development. PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating
scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments
or companies.
For company reports
& ratings...
The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on
the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks.
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