Report Date: 18 July 2016
Where are we in the Cycle?
Despite ongoing worries about global growth, the cyclical position of
metal prices has improved further in the past week although it remains below
average this far from the most recent peak in prices.
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Market Directions
Equity prices have been encouraged higher by expectations of lower
interest rates or more prolonged periods of low rates. Gold prices have
benefited but historically high gold equity response rates are likely to
decline.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Strong gains across all development categories in the past week resulted
in a 4% benchmark gain and a 3% gain in the macro portfolio model. There
were no portfolio changes initiated. Cash positions have remained high in
line with the PortfolioDirect cyclical guideposts.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
Kasbah Resources (KAS:AU) has displayed all the elements
typifying the cyclical conditions facing the mining industry over the past
five years: a project ready to go, a 95% fall in share price and a
horrendously high cost of capital stifling development. With a 67% share
price rise over five days, Kasbah is now displaying the bottom of the cycle
leverage which, one by one, companies with an underlying value proposition
produce as the cycle progresses. The timing of the move higher among these
companies depends less on company specific events under the control of
management than on seller exhaustion over which they exert little influence.
Queried by ASX, Kasbah highlighted the removal of a share overhang as the
catalyst for its large share price rise. Now for the next challenge:
implementing a strategy to maintain the flow of new investors so as to
sustain the higher price.
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