18 February 2019
Where are we in the Cycle?
Of the five, PortfolioDirect cyclical guideposts two are ‘red’ and three
‘amber’. The cyclical positioning has been classified as ‘downswing’ with
global growth decelerating, a loss of output momentum in China and the
emergence of less supportive monetary policy settings than had prevailed
after 2009.
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Market Directions
The post-Christmas recovery in stock prices continued. Anticipated
volatility diminished leading to further flow-through gains in resource
sector equities despite professed nervousness among investors about the
global growth outlook. The smallest stocks in the sector continued to trail
the sector leaders indicating a reluctance to embrace such stocks among the
retail investors typically recruited to fund smaller companies. Large
numbers of exploration companies are trading at historically low prices.
Climbing prices for higher risk corporate bonds implies more favourable
conditions for companies seeking development funding.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
The strongest investment returns have once again been apparent among the
most established stocks in the sector. Exploration stocks are lagging.
Phase II companies which had been lagging the leaders outperformed them in
the past week and have edged ahead for the month to date. A relatively large
weighting in Phase I companies has been retained. No portfolio changes have
been recommended.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk
attributes of proposed mineral developments. Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of
development. PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating
scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments
or companies.
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on
the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks.
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