16 December 2019
Where are we in the Cycle?
Of the five PortfolioDirect cyclical guideposts, two are ‘red’ and three
‘amber’. The cyclical positioning has been classified as ‘downswing’ with
decelerating global growth forcing a negative change to expectations, a loss
of output momentum in China, the largest national user of metal, and less
supportive monetary policy settings than have prevailed for most of the
post-2009 period.
More...
Market Directions
Global equity prices were buoyed by news of a trade deal between the USA
and China. The new deal seemed to reassure markets that 2020 growth was on
a stronger footing than it might have been otherwise. As 2019 ends, the
narrative about the growth backdrop should acquire a more positive tone.
Industrial metal prices were generally higher during the week against the
backdrop of improving sentiment about global growth outcomes. The sector
leading stocks responded positively to the apparent breakthrough on trade
and signs of improvement in background sector influences.
More...
Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Phase III stock gains accelerated markedly with all stocks showing a
positive return during the week as doubts about global growth prospects
subsided, although gains were made across all three development categories.
The macro model is running slightly ahead of the benchmark indicators for
the month to date. No changes have been made to portfolio models which
remain biased to the Phase I stock category. Phase I stocks are likely to
show less leverage to cyclical weakness since they are starting from already
historically low price levels and greater leverage to a sustained
improvement in sentiment toward the sector.
More...
Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk
attributes of proposed mineral developments. Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of
development. PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating
scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments
or companies.
More...
The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on
the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks.
More...