Where are we in the Cycle?
Of the five PortfolioDirect cyclical guideposts, two are ‘green’ and three are flashing ‘amber’.  Cyclical conditions have been driven by the unprecedented surge in liquidity from central banks and accompanying fiscal expansions although, looking ahead, commodity markets will face an inevitably slowing monetary momentum.  An acceleration in global growth, reflected in upgraded forecasts for 2021, is concealing a tendency for weakening growth through the course of the year and into 2022. The cyclical positioning has been characterised as being near a peak and at risk of moving into a ‘downswing’ phase.     More...

Market Directions
Unprecedentedly loose monetary conditions are underpinning price strength among a broad array of assets, including those of industrial and precious metals. Speculative capital flows connected to retail investors are supporting sector prices and offsetting the negative effect on mining equities of physical market balances tilting into surplus due to a slowdown in demand.  Heavily hyped energy storage innovations are stoking interest but remain too far in the future to affect current metal demand.  1990s style investment performance - when modest sector equity price gains occurred in the midst of sometimes highly disruptive macro conditions - remains the underlying theme.      More...

Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Sector share prices were mixed in the past week with only the Phase II category producing a positive return.  A majority of stocks in both the Phase II and Phase III categories did produce positive outcomes.  Phase III stocks, the most mature in the sector, continue to track broader equity market trends.  Phase II companies, among the riskiest investment options due to their indebtedness, heavy reliance on execution success and need for strong global economic conditions to sustain sales, are struggling to match risk adjusted returns among the more mature producers in the sector. A general willingness among retail investors to take speculative risks, as long as monetary conditions remain favourable, continues to favour the earliest stage companies which also offer uncorrelated returns from discovery opportunities.  Portfolio models remain biased to the Phase I stock category with cash positions reflecting the cyclical risks associated with slowing  rates of monetary expansion and output growth.    More...

Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis 
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk attributes of proposed mineral developments.  Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of development.  PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments or companies.    
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks. More...