16 July 2018
Where are we in the Cycle?
Weak productivity outcomes among advanced economies and structural
impediments among developing economies are evident headwinds to the
advancement of an already mature cycle. Uncertainties over trade
restrictions are putting corporate investment decisions at risk at a
critical juncture. Supply constraints, monetary conditions and exchange
rates, important cyclical commodity price props, had become less supportive
before trade issues loomed as a danger to the cycle.
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Market Directions
The downward trajectory of precious and industrial metal prices
continued. US trade policies have been blamed despite the loss of momentum
being evident since the first weeks of 2018. The smallest stocks in the
sector made up some lost ground against the market leaders, consistent with
seasonal movements, but remain anchored near cyclical troughs. The largest
stocks in the sector continue to receive investor support. More...
Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Phase I and Phase III stocks made gains in the past week with the
smallest adding to post-June seasonal gains. Companies with development
opportunities have been the least well supported. The macro portfolio
remains tilted toward the smaller end of the market and advanced exploration
efforts where there is less correlation with broader equity market
conditions. No changes to the portfolio models have been suggested. A
modest cash position remains.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk
attributes of proposed mineral developments. Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of
development. PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating
scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments
or companies.
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on
the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks.
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