Where are we in the Cycle?
 The cyclical position has lost some momentum but remains dominated by exchange rate movements which now pose a negative threat. Exaggerated claims by the World Gold Council about gold market conditions understate the importance of short term monetary conditions in supporting the gold price.       More...

Market Directions
With exchange rates having a greater impact on commodity prices, sector returns are set to be influenced increasingly by central bank monetary policies (and the day to day uncertainties surrounding their direction).      More...

Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Generally weaker prices at the top end of the market were offset to some extent by gains at the smaller end due to its exposure to the gold market segment.  There were more advances than declines among Phase I stocks but not outside this group where losses were more extensive.  The high recommended cash position has been retained.  The cyclical positioning of metal prices is displaying some recent slippage.  Although prices show signs of nearing the bottom of the cycle, they are well below average for the equivalent point historically.             More...

Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis 
Blackham Resources (BLK:AU), developing gold assets in the Wiluna region of Western Australia, has been classified as a Phase II company and rated ‘3+’ on the five point PortfolioDirect rating scale.  Blackham Resources has an asset base in the mid-upper range of feasible outcomes and a risk profile near the lower end of feasible outcomes.  Aside from being a near term proxy for movements in the gold price, investment returns will depend on realisation of its intentions to begin production in September and, beyond that, raising the available resource base to extend the life of the mine from a little below eight years to ten years or longer, both judged likely outcomes.  The company has the potential to raise investor interest by clarifying a dividend policy.        
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