Where are we in the Cycle?
Of the five PortfolioDirect cyclical guideposts, three are flashing ‘amber’ and two have turned ‘red’. The central bank liquidity surge and accompanying fiscal expansion, designed to counter adverse growth effects from anti-COVID lockdowns, are being reversed.  Sluggish pre-pandemic growth drivers, now exacerbated by the Russian-Chinese attack on Ukraine and central bank anti-inflation measures, have resumed their primary roles.  Recent US dollar slippage has neutralised one previously overtly negative factor.  Supply side constraints in metal markets have diminished. The cyclical positioning has been characterised as being in a ‘downswing’ phase.   More...

Market Directions
Withdrawal of unprecedentedly supportive monetary conditions and the erosion of real incomes by surging inflation have stemmed the speculative capital flows connected to retail investors.  While heavily hyped energy storage innovations continue to stoke investor interest, they are yet to affect demand meaningfully. Fears of market disruption due to geopolitical rivalries have raised metal price risk premiums without correspondingly beneficial impacts on related equity prices.  New tax incentives will encourage US domiciled investors to eschew foreign development locations in favour of investments in US mine and downstream capacity. Persistence of a 1990s-style investment performance - when modest sector equity price gains occurred in the midst of sometimes highly disruptive macro conditions - remains the underlying theme.    More...

Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Consistent with general market strength, amid doubts about the need for continuing monetary constraint, returns in all three development categories have been strongly positive in the new year with the Phase II category posting its strongest gain since July after a succession of monthly losses.  Investment returns from Phase I companies remain the most threatened by weaker speculative capital flows but they continue to benefit from discovery opportunities uncorrelated with market conditions.  Although further along the development path and closer to profitability, Phase II companies carry risks arising from their indebtedness, heavy reliance on execution success and need for strong global economic conditions to initiate sales.  Performance within the Phase III category is more likely to be driven by institutional allocations responding to changing macro conditions.   Portfolio models remain biased to the Phase I stock category with cash positions reflecting the cyclical risks.     More...

Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis 
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk attributes of proposed mineral developments.  Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of development.  PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments or companies.    
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks. More...