Report Date: 15 August 2016
Where are we in the Cycle?
Even some of the least fashionable parts of the commodities space, such
as thermal coal, can show strong leverage to changes in market balances near
the trough of a cycle.
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Market Directions
Record stock prices are being recorded at a time of lowered risk
perceptions and highly supportive monetary policies. The improved risk
appetite is evident across multiple assets including those connected to the
resources sector.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
The PortfolioDirect macro model has underperformed the
benchmark index during August as Phase I stocks have failed to hold onto
prior strong gains. No portfolio changes have been suggested. Without an
improvement in the PortfolioDirect cyclical guideposts, high cash positions
have been retained.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
Kasbah Resources (KAS:AU) has been made an offer it could
have refused. On paper, the value proposition favours rejecting the stock
and warrants bid from TSX-listed Asian Mineral Resources (AMR) for all the
shares in Kasbah. In recommending acceptance of the bid, Kasbah directors
have implicitly conceded that AMR is the better able of the two to fund the
Achmmach tin project in Morocco. In committing support for the bid, Kasbah’s
major shareholders also appear to have concluded that AMR’s development
credentials and capital market connections are more likely to bring the long
delayed project to fruition.
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