Where are we in the Cycle?
 Cyclical guideposts are unchanged after the first upgrade in two years a week earlier.  Moves by the European Central Bank last week have highlighted the challenging cyclical outlook.      More...

Market Directions
Oil prices have continued to set the equity market direction. The impact of the improved gold price momentum has been inconclusive in setting a new direction.  The stalled US dollar exchange rate may prove temporary but is helping support better commodity prices in the near term.        More...

Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Portfolio results were more subdued than in recent weeks with the largest gains for the month so far coming from Phase III companies.  Potash West was removed from the portfolio after a steep share price rise which companies have typically been unable to sustain.       More...

Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis 
Excelsior Gold (EXG:AU), developing gold properties in WA for ore processing at nearby external milling facilities, has been classified as a Phase II company and rated ‘3’ on the five point PortfolioDirect rating scale where a ‘5’ is the highest rating on the risk adjusted quality scale.  Near term production has been increased by approximately one-third over what had been expected when the October 2015 PortfolioDirect rating was completed.  The rise in the US dollar gold price from $1,160/oz to $1,260/oz added approximately A$33 million to the appraised value.  The company is better positioned from a valuation standpoint but the market value is 46% higher.  The benefit of the current value premium is offset by the loss of future value momentum – a key ingredient in the rating methodology. It will need higher production or a longer operational life to sustain its current valuation which is set to fall after 2016. It is among the best positioned of the early stage gold miners to meet this common challenge but still needs to define a firm plan.  
 For company reports & ratings...