13 August 2018
Where are we in the Cycle?
Weak productivity outcomes among advanced economies and structural
impediments among developing economies are evident headwinds to the
advancement of an already mature cycle. Uncertainties over trade
restrictions are putting corporate investment decisions at risk at a
critical juncture. A range of adverse influences is edging the cycle toward
a tipping point. Two of the five cyclical guideposts have been downgraded.
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Market Directions
The downward trajectory of precious and industrial metal prices
continued with an added impetus to flee risky investments arising from sharp
losses in developing market currencies. US trade policies have been blamed
although signs of momentum loss in industrial metal prices were evident
since the first weeks of 2018. Metal related equity prices were firmer than
the movements in metal prices amid some scepticism that the cyclical
conditions have actually worsened. The exploration end of the market again
showed relative strength.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Losses in Phase I and Phase II investments offset a modest gain in the
Phase III portfolio segment in the past week. The macro portfolio remains
tilted toward the smaller end of the market and advanced exploration efforts
where there is less correlation with broader equity market conditions.
Portfolio adjustments have reflected relative price movements. The cash
position has increased slightly.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk
attributes of proposed mineral developments. Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of
development. PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating
scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments
or companies.
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on
the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks.
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