Report Date: 12 September 2016
Where are we in the Cycle?
International Monetary Fund warnings of another growth downgrade
highlighted once again the poor cyclical backdrop to which resource sector
investors must respond in framing their decisions.
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Market Directions
Markets have been disrupted again by mixed messages on U.S. interest
rates and fears that central banks are reaching the end of their powers to
affect asset prices.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Positive sector returns in the week were dominated by movements among
Phase III companies indicating the influence of professional money. Early
stage companies still faced difficulties holding gains. Whitehaven Coal and
Universal Coal were added to the Phase II sub-portfolio based on valuation
and diversification needs.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
Whitehaven Coal (WHC:AU), an expanding New South Wales coal
producer, has been rated ‘3+’ on the PortfolioDirect five
point rating scale. The company offers investors leverage to any improvement
in international coal market conditions, a value proposition based on rising
cash flows from expanding production and a falling operational and financial
risk profile. Strong share price gains have closed the previous value gap
but the company does retain potential for future value momentum to
underwrite higher longer term share prices. The quality of the coal
produced by Whitehaven Coal can assist in lowering carbon emissions making
it a sought-after alternative to other coal types.
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