Where are we in the Cycle?
Of the five PortfolioDirect cyclical guideposts, one is ‘green’ and four are flashing ‘amber’.  Cyclical conditions have been disproportionately affected by the unprecedented surge in liquidity from central banks and the accompanying fiscal expansion.  Looking ahead, commodity markets are at risk from an inevitably slowing monetary momentum.  An apparent acceleration in global growth, reflected in forecasts for 2021, will conceal a tendency for weakening through the course of the year and into 2022. The cyclical positioning has been characterised as being near a peak and at risk of moving into a ‘downswing’ phase.   More...

Market Directions
A weakening US dollar and unprecedentedly expansionary monetary conditions have underpinned price strength among a broad array of assets, including those of industrial and precious metals. Speculative capital flows connected to retail investors are supporting sector prices and offsetting the negative effect on mining equities of physical market balances tilting into surplus due to a slowdown in demand.  Heavily hyped energy storage innovations are stoking interest but remain too far in the future to affect current metal demand.  1990s style investment performance - when modest sector equity price gains occurred in the midst of sometimes highly disruptive macro conditions - remains the underlying theme.    More...

Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Gains across all three development categories were led by Phase I companies.  Phase III stocks lagged the rest. The strength of the Phase II performance was the flip side of losses a month before.  Improved market liquidity and a general willingness among retail investors to take speculative risks continue to favour the earliest stage companies. Phase I stocks also offer uncorrelated returns from discovery opportunities.  Phase II companies, among the riskiest investment options due to their indebtedness, heavy reliance on execution success and need for strong global economic conditions to sustain sales, are struggling to match risk adjusted returns elsewhere.  Portfolio models are biased to the Phase I stock category. Cash positions have been rebuilt recently after exposures to uranium related companies were trimmed following a period of strong price gains.   More...

Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis 
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk attributes of proposed mineral developments.  Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of development.  PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments or companies.    
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks. More...