11 July 2022
Where are we in the Cycle?
Of the five PortfolioDirect cyclical guideposts, one is ‘green’, one is
flashing ‘amber’ and three have turned ‘red’. The central bank liquidity
surge and accompanying fiscal expansion, designed to counter the adverse
growth effects of government lockdowns to contain COVID-19 outbreaks, is
being reversed with an increasingly marked impact on the US dollar.
Sluggish pre-pandemic growth drivers, exacerbated by the Russian-Chinese
attack on Ukraine, have resumed their primary roles after having been
concealed through much of 2021 by distorted patterns of economic activity.
Supply side constraints in metal markets remain a positive influence on
prices. The cyclical positioning has been characterised as having commenced
a ‘downswing’ phase.
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Market Directions
The speculative capital flows connected to retail investors and
supporting sector equity prices are under threat from the withdrawal of
unprecedentedly supportive monetary conditions and the erosion of real
incomes by surging inflation. While heavily hyped energy storage
innovations are stoking interest and favourably impacting sector funding,
they are yet to affect demand meaningfully. Fears of market disruption due
to geopolitical rivalries have raised metal price risk premiums without
correspondingly beneficial impacts on related equity prices. Persistence of
a 1990s-style investment performance - when modest sector equity price gains
occurred in the midst of sometimes highly disruptive macro conditions -
remains the underlying theme.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Stocks in the Phase I development category performed best while returns
among the market leaders were again negative. Investment returns from
Phase I companies are threatened by the withdrawal of support by central
banks for speculative capital flows but they continue to benefit from
discovery opportunities uncorrelated with market conditions. Although
further along the development path, Phase II companies remain among the
riskiest investment options due to their indebtedness, heavy reliance on
execution success and need for strong global economic conditions to initiate
sales. Performance within the Phase III category is more likely to be
driven by institutional allocations responding to changing macro
conditions. Portfolio adjustments have recently been made to pare uranium
related investments and introduce fresh early stage exposure. Portfolio
models remain biased to the Phase I stock category with cash positions
reflecting the cyclical risks.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk
attributes of proposed mineral developments. Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of
development. PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating
scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments
or companies.
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on
the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks.
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