11 March 2019
Where are we in the Cycle?
Of the five PortfolioDirect cyclical guideposts, two are ‘red’ and three
‘amber’. The cyclical positioning has been classified as ‘downswing’ with
global growth decelerating, a loss of output momentum in China, the largest
national user of metal, and less supportive monetary policy settings than
have prevailed for most of the post-2009 period.
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Market Directions
Equity prices generally turned lower in a succession of daily losses.
Sector equity prices continued to replicate the 1990s experience of moderate
gains in a complex set of macro conditions. Metal prices continued to defy
forecasts of global economic weakness as expectations of completed US-China
trade negotiations outweighed longer term negative growth impacts in
inferred importance. Sector losses were experienced across all development
stages. Gold prices stalled at levels which had been reached in 2018 and
2016 before turning lower.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Higher prices for Phase I and Phase II companies drove a positive weekly
portfolio outcome despite the market leaders losing posting small losses.
Several Phase II stocks which had been under pressure after missing
milestones showed ongoing signs of recovery even as they stayed near
cyclical low levels. A relatively large weighting in Phase I companies has
been retained. After portfolio changes were made in the prior week to
reflect relative performance outcomes, no further changes were made.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk
attributes of proposed mineral developments. Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of
development. PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating
scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments
or companies.
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on
the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks.
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