11 February 2019
Where are we in the Cycle?
The PortfolioDirect cyclical guideposts have been downgraded to two
‘red’ and three ‘amber’. The cyclical positioning has been classified as
‘downswing’ with global growth decelerating, a loss of output momentum in
China and the emergence of less supportive monetary policy settings.
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Market Directions
After strong equity price increases through January, momentum waned
during the past week. Despite constant chatter about a global growth
slowdown, metal prices held earlier gains and related equity prices
reflected the direction of the broader market. Resources sector stock prices
continued to display a disparity between the performance of the market
leaders, more aligned with movements in broader market conditions, and the
bulk of companies in the sector which remain mired in a prolonged cyclical
slump. The change in emphasis on the part of the US Federal Reserve has
raised hopes that a policy mistake precipitating a recession can be
avoided.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
The strongest investment returns have once again been apparent among the
most established stocks in the sector with exploration stocks biased to the
downside. Phase II companies which had been lagging the leaders replicated
their performance in the past week and have matched their uptick for the
month to date. A relatively large weighting in Phase I companies had been
retained. No portfolio changes have been recommended.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk
attributes of proposed mineral developments. Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of
development. PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating
scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments
or companies.
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on
the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks.
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