Report Date: 10 October 2016
Where are we in the Cycle?
Without an improvement in growth prospects, a strengthening in the US
dollar exchange rate looms as a near-term danger for commodity prices and
associated equity values.
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Market Directions
Resource sector equity prices stalled despite more buoyant expectations
about crude oil prices but downward pressure from gold had an adverse
effect.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Losses among Phase I stocks offset modest gains among Phase II and Phase
III companies. High cash positions continue to reflect a shortage of
companies successfully developing new projects.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
Mustang Resources (MUS:AU), exploring for rubies in
Mozambique, has been classified as a Phase I company and rated ‘3+’ on the
five point PortfolioDirect rating scale. Mustang is unusually positioned
for a mineral explorer insofar as it is able to achieve revenue from ruby
sales arising from bulk testing and before a commercial resource is
defined. Making a link with the nearby operating mine of Gemfields PLC is
at the heart of the investment proposition. Investors will not have long to
wait before getting a clearer picture of the outlook. The risk profile of
the company, based on the standard PortfolioDirect criteria, is unusually
low. Very low expectation risk offers correspondingly high leverage to
future exploration success. It is premature to think of Mustang Resources
as an alternative entry into the global luxury goods market although that is
where its potential could lie in the longer term.
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