10 July 2023
Where are we in the Cycle?
Of the five PortfolioDirect cyclical guideposts, two are flashing
‘amber’ and three have turned ‘red’. Sluggish pre-pandemic productivity
growth, now exacerbated by war in Europe, trade restrictions and central
bank anti-inflation measures, have re-emerged as constraints on demand
expansion. The post-2020 central bank liquidity surge is being reversed,
with an increasingly evident effect on bank solvency and capital
availability. A rising US dollar, one previously overt negative factor, has
stalled after a modest reversal of prior gains. Supply side constraints in
metal markets have become less severe. The cyclical positioning has been
characterised as a ‘downswing’ phase. More...
Market Directions
Withdrawal of unprecedentedly supportive monetary conditions and erosion
of real incomes by surging inflation have stemmed speculative capital flows
connected to retail investors. Professional money, by continuing to discount
a recession, provides some market relief. While heavily hyped energy
storage innovations are stoking sector interest, they are yet to affect
metal demand meaningfully. Fears of market disruption due to geopolitical
rivalries have raised metal price risk premiums without correspondingly
beneficial impacts on related equity valuations. New tax incentives are
encouraging relocation of mine development and downstream processing
capacity. Persistence of a 1990s-style investment performance - when modest
sector equity price gains occurred in the midst of sometimes highly
disruptive macro conditions - remains the underlying theme.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Phase I stocks continued to make up lost ground last week with small
losses in other development categories. The best performing stocks in the
past month were recouping prior heavy losses rather than benefitting from
new value building endeavors. Volatility derived from uncertainty about
market liquidity, driven by central bank policies, remained evident. Phase
I returns remain the most threatened by weaker speculative capital flows,
and would be a primary beneficiary of any policy easing, but continue to
deliver value-enhancing discovery opportunities uncorrelated with market
conditions. Although further along the development path and closer to
profitability, Phase II companies carry risks arising from their
indebtedness and heavy reliance on execution success in sometimes unfamiliar
markets. Performance within the Phase III category is more likely to be
driven by institutional allocations responding to changing macro
conditions. Portfolio models remain biased to the Phase I stock category
with cash positions reflecting the cyclical risks. More...
Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk
attributes of proposed mineral developments. Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of
development. PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating
scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments
or companies.
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on
the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks.
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