9 July 2018
Where are we in the Cycle?
Weak productivity outcomes among advanced economies and structural
impediments among developing economies are evident headwinds to the
advancement of an already mature cycle. Uncertainties over trade
restrictions are putting corporate investment decisions at risk at a
critical juncture. Supply constraints, monetary conditions and exchange
rates, important commodity price props, have become less supportive.
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Market Directions
The downward trajectory of precious and industrial metal prices was more
marked. Iron ore is weak but coal remains strong. Crude oil has risen amid
increasingly bullish assessments of its prospects and worries about demand
damage. Uranium remains in a lengthy cyclical slump. The prices of large
mining stocks remain closer to cyclical peaks that the prices of their
underpinning commodities. Explorers remain anchored nearer cyclical troughs More...
Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Phase I stocks bucked the market trend as did, to a lesser extent, the
selected Phase II companies after recent seasonal weakness in performance.
The macro portfolio remains tilted toward the smaller end of the market and
advanced exploration efforts where there is less correlation with broader
equity market conditions. No changes to the portfolio models have been
suggested. A modest cash position remains.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk
attributes of proposed mineral developments. Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of
development. PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating
scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments
or companies.
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on
the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks.
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