Report Date: 6 June 2016
Where are we in the Cycle?
Exchange rates (and related expectations about monetary policy)
continue to drive metal prices. On the assumption this continues, the
balance of probabilities points to metal price downside.
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Market Directions
A shock low U.S. employment gain in May caused interest rate
expectations to be revised yet again with resulting exchange rate impacts
driving metal and related equity prices sharply higher at the end of the
week.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Phase I companies followed up strong gains in May with further gains in
the past week. Those in Phase III remained weak. There were no fresh
portfolio recommendations. Cash positions remain high with Phase II and III
portfolio segments below target weights.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
Elk Petroleum (ELK:AU) is uniquely positioned among ASX
listed companies to access low cost oil through enhanced oil recovery
processes superior to conventional recovery techniques, in many ways.
Historical management inexperience and poor market conditions have left the
company unable to cover the full cost of the historical capital invested in
its Grieve property in Wyoming. A modest return on incremental capital is
being sought from a restructured joint venture. Lessons having been learned,
Elk’s capacity to generate future competitive investment returns and
validate the current market value of the company will depend on it being
able to successfully manage post-Grieve development opportunities. A
PortfolioDirect report has rated the company ‘3’ on the five point rating
scale.
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