5 February 2018
Where are we in the Cycle?
Cyclical conditions have gradually improved with an increasing reliance
on a weaker US dollar as global growth nears its peak for the cycle and as
opportunities for upside surprise are limited by generally weak productivity
outcomes.
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Market Directions
Metal prices are near peak values for the past year with currency
movements conspicuously benefitting prices. Better than expected US
employment and wages outcomes should benefit the sector despite the adverse
equity market reaction at the end of last week. Gold prices are potentially
lower.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
The smallest stocks in the sector were among the weakest performers in
the past week due to a combination of market conditions and some retracement
of gains by specific stocks where exploration outcomes had been influential
previously. No changes have been recommended. The portfolio retains a large
cash holding reflecting the PortfolioDirect assessment of the scope for
further cyclical improvement.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk
attributes of proposed mineral developments. Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of
development. PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating
scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments
or companies.
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on
the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks.
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