Where are we in the Cycle?
Of the five PortfolioDirect cyclical guideposts, one is ‘green’, one is flashing ‘amber’ and three have turned ‘red’.  The central bank liquidity surge and accompanying fiscal expansion, designed  to counter the adverse growth effects of government lockdowns to contain COVID-19 outbreaks, is being reversed with an increasingly marked impact on the US dollar.  Sluggish pre-pandemic growth drivers, exacerbated by the Russian-Chinese attack on Ukraine, have resumed their primary roles after having been concealed through much of 2021 by distorted patterns of economic activity.  Supply side constraints in metal markets remain a positive influence on prices. The cyclical positioning has been characterised as having commenced a ‘downswing’ phase.   More...

Market Directions
The speculative capital flows connected to retail investors and supporting sector equity prices are under threat from the withdrawal of unprecedentedly supportive monetary conditions as surging inflation becomes the primary policy concern.  While heavily hyped energy storage innovations are stoking interest and favourably impacting sector funding, they are yet to affect demand meaningfully. Fears of market disruption due to geopolitical rivalries are raising metal price risk premiums without similar impacts on related equity prices.  Persistence of a 1990s-style investment performance - when modest sector equity price gains occurred in the midst of sometimes highly disruptive macro conditions - remains the underlying theme.        More...

Portfolio Performance and Positioning
he sector took a breather in the past week from recent heavy declines in stock prices.  The Phase I category performed best.   Investment returns from Phase I companies are threatened by the withdrawal of support by central banks for speculative capital flows but they continue to benefit from discovery opportunities uncorrelated with market conditions.  Although further along the development path, Phase II companies remain among the riskiest investment options due to their indebtedness, heavy reliance on execution success and need for strong global economic conditions to initiate sales.  Performance within the Phase III category is more likely to be driven by institutional allocations responding to changing macro conditions.  Portfolio adjustments have recently been made to pare uranium related investments and introduce fresh early stage exposure. Portfolio models remain biased to the Phase I stock category with cash positions reflecting the cyclical risks.    More...

Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis 
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk attributes of proposed mineral developments.  Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of development.  PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments or companies.    
More...

The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks. More...