Report Date: 4 July 2016
Where are we in the Cycle?
Some evident improvement in the cyclical position of metal prices leaves
markets better positioned near a still below average cyclical trough.
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Market Directions
A sense of relief in financial markets over the Brexit vote impact on
liquidity and growth has helped resource sector equities. Gold bullion
prices have benefited from an emerging sense that low interest rates will
last longer than expected just a few weeks ago.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Phase III companies appeared to benefit most from the flow of funds in
response to changing views about the financial market impact of the Brexit
vote. Cyclical conditions still warrant retention of a large cash position
as companies battle to sustain price rises. There were no changes to the
portfolio recommendations .
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
Danakali (DNK:AU) could validly claim to have the best
resource development potential of any ASX-listed company. Its biggest
investment headwind is its location: Eritrea. CEO Paul Donaldson argues
strenuously that Eritrea gets a bad rap. There is no corruption. There’s no
war with neighbouring Ethiopia. The government is keen to raise living
standards and has worked cooperatively to improve infrastructure. The
problem yet to be confronted by Eritrea and unaddressed by Danakali is how
the transition to a new president is managed in a one party dictatorship
without a constitution and no history of elections. Unfortunately, one
man’s stable government can easily become another man’s anarchy when it is
time to change. As long as that is yet to occur, Danakali risks a
potentially dramatic loss of value at some indefinite time in the future.
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