4 June 2018
Where are we in the Cycle?
Global economic growth might have already peaked during a surge in the
latter part of 2017. Beneficial effects will linger but uncertainties over
trade restrictions are now putting corporate investment decisions at risk at
a critical juncture in the cycle as supply constraints, monetary conditions
and exchange rates become less supportive of cyclical progress.
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Market Directions
Trade policy, European political instability, Korean crisis management
and interest rate policy were again influential during the week with large
developing country exchange rate swings assuming greater importance and
creating a further threat to global growth synchronisation. Commodity prices
slipped further from their recent cycle peaks. Resource sector equity
prices were generally higher with the smallest stocks in the sector losing
ground to those at the upper end.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Phase II companies led the returns over the past week although
performance within the sector was relatively balanced and within an
unusually narrow range. The macro portfolio remains tilted toward the
smaller end of the market where there is less correlation with broader
equity market conditions. After significant moves through the month, there
was little net change in prices in any of the three stock groupings during
May. There were no suggested portfolio changes. A significant cash position
remains. More...
Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk
attributes of proposed mineral developments. Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of
development. PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating
scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments
or companies.
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on
the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks.
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