Report Date: 3 October 2016
Where are we in the Cycle?
Further improvement in cyclical positioning is evident although recent
prices are little better than average for the bottom of a cycle.
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Market Directions
Energy prices, boosted by talk that Saudi Arabia will support a cutback
in crude oil production, combined with ebbing fears of a Deutsche Bank
collapse to support equity prices.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
The largest share price gains for the month were in phase one stocks but
larger cap companies recouped losses from earlier in the month. The
PortfolioDirect macro model undershot the benchmark by 2.4 percentage points
in September and 2.7 percentage points for the three months ended September.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
Barra Resources (BAR:AU), 50% owner of the Mt Thirsty
cobalt venture 20km from Norseman in Western Australia, is a participant in
the lithium-graphite-cobalt battery trilogy. Storage battery opportunities
are opening up new development options for deposits hitherto constrained by
market size. Low grade cobalt-bearing laterite resources have lacked
development attention apart from cases where resources have been
incorporated into the mine plan of established nickel laterite mining and
processing operations. These operators have demonstrated the technical
capacity to recover cobalt using energy and chemical intensive processes. Of
particular interest are a range of promising atmospheric leach processes
(some of which have been trialled successfully at Mt Thirsty) which offer a
potential lower cost development pathway.
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