1 October 2018
Where are we in the Cycle?
Peak metal prices were recorded in February 2018 in an already mature
metal price cycle. Unusually prolonged supply side constraints which have
been offsetting the effect of weak demand growth are losing their impact as
newly initiated production starts to flow in some metal categories. Monetary
policy settings are tightening as weak productivity constrains global growth
potential leading to a deceleration in activity growth rates with an adverse
effect on metal use.
More...
Market Directions
Sector equity and commodity price indicators sit toward the lower end of
their levels from the past year with the exception of the prices of the
market leaders which continue to benefit from their correlation with rising
US equity prices. The smallest stocks in the sector have been especially
leveraged to weakening background conditions. Explorers have posted three
consecutive quarters of negative returns.
More...
Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Higher sector prices in the past week were reflected in modest gains
across all portfolio segments with advances and gains evenly split. The
macro model underperformed the benchmark by 1.4 percentage points over the
course of September due to lagging returns among the Phase I category. The
macro portfolio remains tilted toward advanced exploration efforts. No
portfolio adjustments were made.
More...
Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk
attributes of proposed mineral developments. Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of
development. PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating
scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments
or companies.
More...
The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on
the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks.
More...