1 June 2020
Where are we in the Cycle?
Of the five PortfolioDirect cyclical guideposts, three are ‘red’ and two
‘amber’. ‘Trough Entry’ has been retained as the description of the
cyclical positioning with ongoing downside risk to global growth
expectations, a persistently high US dollar and a metal price term structure
signaling abundant supplies. The international policy stance is more
supportive but well short of fully compensating for the impact of COVID-19
remediation measures. China’s improved growth momentum leaves the economy
with ample excess capacity.
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Market Directions
The balance of near term risks to sector investment returns remains
negative although credit markets have regained their composure. Rebounding
equity prices in the leading US market are optimistically anticipating a
quick resolution to earnings uncertainty and return to growth.
Pre-coronavirus global growth rates would have already been insufficient to
absorb growing mine supplies. Even with production losses, market balances
will now tilt more firmly into surplus. Expectations of medium term deficits
supporting sector valuations will not be realised. A return to 1990s style
sector investment performance - when modest sector equity price gains
occurred in the midst of sometimes highly disruptive macro conditions -
remains possible after public health risks are brought under control.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Phase I and Phase III development categories made gains in the past week
with Phase I outperforming the rest for the month as a whole. Larger stocks
in the Phase III category were assisted by institutional money flows.
Exploration companies retain the strongest leverage to an improvement in
capital market conditions because of their ongoing working capital needs and
frequency of recourse to capital markets. Phase II companies face the
greatest risks from potential demand shrinkage as they are the most indebted
companies in the sector. Their relative performance has not adequately
compensated for risk. Portfolio models remain biased to the Phase I stock
category with maintenance of a large cash position reflecting ongoing
downside risks.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk
attributes of proposed mineral developments. Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of
development. PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating
scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments
or companies.
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on
the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks.
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